Prediksi Krisis Perbankan di Indonesia Menggunakan CD Indeks

Main Article Content

Amir Ambyah Zakaria
Musdholifah Musdholifah


Banking sector has close relationship with economic growth. At the end of 2015 condition of global economic has influence from China slowdown, fall down crude oil price, and rasie interest rate by the fed. These had bad impact for developing counties like Indonesia. In the fact financials crisis in Asia at 1998, sub prime mortage crisis in USA at 2008, and goverment debt crisis in Greece at 2011 made many bank in Indonesia collapse. From past crisis banking sector must have more attention to avoid sistemic crisis. This study aim to make prediction banking crisis models from three group of variable. There are internal bank, macroeconomic, and global economic. This research use Crisis and Default index to measure and identificate probably crisis in indivual bank. All of bank were listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange at 2009 until 2014 has taken as sample. This research chose logit model as a probability crisis models and use logistic regression to testing hypothesis. The result from internal factor with non performing loans, labor cost ratio, and loan to deposits ratio was positive relationship with probability banking crisis. Futhermore net interest margin and interest income to total aset was negative influence for banking crisis. Then from macroeconomic and global economic these are domestic inflation and USA real interest rate was positive influence for banking crisis. After that M2 to reserved ratio, USA growth, and oil price was negative impact to make banking crisis in Indonesia


Download data is not yet available.

Article Details

How to Cite
Zakaria, A. A., & Musdholifah , M. (2021). Prediksi Krisis Perbankan di Indonesia Menggunakan CD Indeks . Nuris Journal of Education and Islamic Studies, 1(1), 11–30.


Arena, M. (2008). Bank failures and bank fundamentals: A comparative analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the nineties using bank-level data. Journal of Banking & Finance No. 32.

Barnett, Ziegler, & Byleen. (2012). College Algerbra (8 ed.). New York: Mc Graw Hill.

Baselga-Pascual, L., Trujillo-Ponce, A., & Cardone-Riportella, C. (2015). Factors influencing bank risk in Europe: Evidence from the financial crisis. North American Journal of Economics and Finance 21, 21(34), 138.

Beck, T., Demirguc¸-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2006). Bank concentration, competition, and crises: First results. Journal of Banking & Finance 30 :1581–1603.

Betz, F., Oprică, S., Peltonen, T. A., & Sarlin, P. (2013). PREDICTING DISTRESS IN EUROPEAN BANKS. Working Paper, 1597(October 2013). Retrieved from

Bhattacharya, B., & Roy, T. N. S. (2009). Forewarning Indicator System for Banking Crisis in India. Retrieved from

Bloomberg. (2016). WTI crude oil price. Crude Oil & Natural Gas. Retrieved from

Boyacioglu, M. A., Kara, Y., & Baykan, O. K. (2009). Predicting bank financial failures using neural networks, support vector machines and multivariate statistical methods: A comparative analysis in the sample of savings deposit insurance fund (SDIF) transferred banks in Turkey. Expert Systems with Applications 36.

BPS. (2015). Laju Pertumbuhan PDB Atas Dasar Harga Konstan 2000 Menurut Lapangan Usaha (Persen), 2000-2014. Retrieved from

Canicio, D., & Blessing, K. ( 2014). Determinants of Bank Failures in Multiple-Currency Regime in Zimbabwe (2009–2012). International Journal of Economics and Finance, 6,(8).

Čihák, M. (2007). Introduction to Applied Stress Testing. IMF Working Paper WP/07/59.

Curran, E. (2016). China Panic Clashes With Outlook for Modest Growth Slowdown. Blomberg Business. Retrieved from

Dabós, M. P., & Escudero, W. S. (2004). Explaining and predicting bank failure using duration models: the case of Argentina after the Mexican crisis. Revista de Análisis Económico, 19(1).

Dalio, R. (2013). How The Economic Machine Works. Bridgewater. Retrieved from

Demirgüç-Kunt, & Detragiache, E. (1998). The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries. IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 1

Demirgüç-Kunt, & Detragiache, E. (2000). Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach. The World Bank Economic Reviews, Vol. 14, No. 2.

Demirgüç-Kunt, & Detragiache, E. (2002). Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation. Journal of Monetary Economics 49 : 1373–1406.

Demirgüç-Kunt, & Huizinga, H. (2012). Are banks too big to fail or too big to save? International evidence from equity prices and CDS spreads. Journal of Banking & Finance.

Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S., & Startz, R. (2008). Macroeconomics. New york McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Estrella, A., Park, S., & Peristiani, S. (2000). Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure. Economic Policy Review, 6(2).

Flood, R. P., & Garber, P. M. (1984). Collapsing exchange-rate regimes: some linear examples. Journal of International Economics, 17(1), 1.

Giannetti, M. (2007). Financial liberalization and banking crises:

The role of capital inflows and lack of transparency. J. Finan. Intermediation 16, 32.

Gilbert, R. A., Meyer, A. P., & Vaughan, M. D. (2002). Could a CAMELS downgrade model improve off-site surveillance? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 84(January/February 2002).

Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics. New York The McGraw-Hills Companies.

Hagen, & Ho. (2007). Money market pressure and the determinants of banking crises. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(5), 1037.

Hardy, & Pazarbasioglu, C. (1998). Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Was Asia Different? IMF Working Paper.

Kibritcioglu, A. (2002). Excessive Risk.Taking, Banking Sector Fragility, and Banking Crises. Working Paper University of Illinois No. 02-0114.

Kick, T., & Koetter, M. (2007). Slippery slopes of stress: ordered failure events in German banking. Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies No 03.

Klomp, J. (2010). Causes of banking crises revisited. North American Journal of Economics and Finance 21.

Krugman, P. (1979). A Model of Balance-of-Payment Crises. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol 11 No.3 August; 311-325.

Lestano, & Kuper. (2003). Indicators of financial crises do work! An early-warning system for six Asian countries. Working Paper.

Mankiw, N. G. (2006). Principles Of Economic (3 ed.). Jakarta Salemba Empat.

Männasoo, K., & Mayes, D. G. (2005). Investigating the Early Signals of Banking Sector Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern European Emerging Markets

Working Papers of Eesti Pank, 8.

Musdholifah. (2013). Predicting Banking Crisis in Six Asian Countries. European Journal of Business and Management, 5(28 ).

Musdholifah. (2015). Using Index for Predicting Banking Crisis in Asian Countries. International Journal of Empirical Finance, 4(3).

Obstfeld, M., & Rogoff, K. (1986). Ruling out divergent speculative bubbles. Journal of Monetary Economics, 17(3), 349.

Plegas, F. (2015, November 9, 2015). Greece’s Debt Crisis Explained. International Business. Retrieved from

Poghosyan, T., & Čihák, M. (2008). Distress in European Banks: An Analysis Based on a New Dataset. IMF Working Paper.

Publication Central Bank of Republic China. (2015). Macro environmental factors potentially affecting financial sector. Retrieved from

Ranasinghe, D. (2015). Why China's yuan may be set for 15% devaluation. World Economy. Retrieved from

Reinhart, C., Goldstein, M., & Kaminsky, G. (2000). Early Warning System: An Assessment of Vulnerability. MPRA Paper No. 24579.

Schaeck, K., & Cihák, M. (2007). Banking competition and capital ratios. IMF Working Papers, 1.

Stine, R., & Foster, D. (2011). Statistics for Business Decision Making and Analysis. Boston: Pearson Education Inc

Wong, J., Wong, T.-C., & Leung, P. (2010). Predicting banking distress in the EMEAP economies. Journal of Financial Stability, No.6.

Yahoo Finance. (2015). Chart IDR-USD. Retrieved from;_ylc=X3oDMTI0dWxqa2tpBGtleXcDTlBMIGluZG9uZXNpYQRtaWQDbWVkaWFxdW90ZXNzZWFyY2gEc2VjA3VoYjIEc2xrA2ZpbmFuY2Vfc2VhcmNo?p=NPL%20indonesia&type=2button

YahooFinance. (2015). jakarta Composite Index. Retrieved from^JKSE+Interactive#{%22showArea%22:false,%22lineWidth%22:%224%22,%22lineType%22:%22line%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}

Yan, S. (2015). IMF: Global markets should brace for China slowdown. Retrieved from

Zhuang, J., & Dowling, J. M. (2002). Causes of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: What can an early warning system model tell us? Retrieved from